NYSE: VG — US Gulf Coast LNG Exporter — Quick Take
Energy led the Wed 14 Oct US VolumeSurge — of the 24 names passing all three filters, Energy tied at the top by count (5, with Technology 5 and Healthcare 5) but held four of the top eight by turnover (PBF $310M, VG $162M, CVI $51M, EFXT $37M), so the group was the screen's dominant tape. The HK VolumeSurge of 14 Oct passed 0 of 2,817 names, so no HK signal applied. Venture Global is the only Energy name on the print above the US$15B floor (PBF Energy ≈ $10.8B, CVR Energy ≈ $6.3B, Enerflex ≈ $3.4B are all sub-threshold) and it closed +5.41% at $13.84 on 11.7M shares / ~$162M turnover at a P/E of ~10 — the cleanest large-cap, cash-generative name in the day's leading sector.
The trigger is a fortnight of company-specific progress plus a supportive LNG tape. On 1 Oct Venture Global and ConocoPhillips signed a 20-year LNG supply agreement (1 MTPA), and the same day the company asked FERC to place Plaquemines Phase 1 into service — the final regulatory milestone before commercial operation. On 7 Oct it reported a Q3 operational update (124 cargoes exported, $6.79/MMBtu average liquefaction fee) and on 8 Oct lifted Gator Express pipeline capacity by >600 MMcf/d ahead of the Plaquemines Phase 2 expansion, with the sell-side reaffirming Buy and an unchanged $18 target on 9 Oct. Throwing fuel on it, the 14 Oct energy tape carried OilPrice's "Stranded Middle East LNG Supply Upends Gas Markets" and "Wall Street Sees Inflation Easing Even With Oil Above $90" — a supply-tightness backdrop that favours US Gulf Coast exporters. First-time coverage in this series; no re-research callout.
| Year | Revenue | Rev Growth | Op Margin | Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $6,448M | n/a | 55.1% | $1,858M |
| FY2023 | $7,897M | +22.5% | 61.2% | $2,681M |
| FY2024 | $4,972M | −37.0% | 35.5% | $1,475M |
| FY2025 | $13,769M | +176.9% | 37.5% | $2,260M |
| TTM (Jun '26) | $16,951M | +100.7% | 37.6% | $3,331M |
Fiscal year ends December; reports in USD. Gross margin has compressed from 73.7% (FY2023) to 46.9% TTM as the mix shifted from Calcasieu commissioning cargoes to contracted Plaquemines volumes — but operating margin held at 37.6% and net margin at ~19.7%. Balance sheet: $3.15B cash vs $42.84B total debt → net debt $39.68B (−$15.87/share), debt/equity 3.55x, debt/EBITDA 5.7x. TTM operating cash flow $6.83B against capex of −$13.82B, giving free cash flow of −$6.99B, funded by $11.85B of net borrowing — this is still a build-out story. Valuation at $13.84 (2.50B shares, $34.6B cap; EV $74.3B): ~10.9x TTM P/E, ~8.6x forward P/E, ~2.0x sales, ~4.0x book, PEG 0.30, EV/EBITDA 10.1x, 0.52% dividend yield, 1.75% of shares short (8.4% of float). Stock +46.5% over 52 weeks but still below its Jan-2025 IPO price; 50-DMA $13.88, 200-DMA $12.29, RSI 53.7. 18 analysts, consensus Buy, average target $16.78 (+21%). Next earnings 9 Nov 2026.
The interesting thing here is the contrast: a screen that keeps surfacing 50–300x AI-infrastructure names threw up an $35B LNG exporter trading at ~9x forward earnings with record volumes and 91% contracted capacity, and the market spent the week re-rating it on a 20-year ConocoPhillips deal and the Plaquemines COD milestone rather than punishing the Galp arbitration — a $170M-capped, quantified overhang that management can absorb. The risk is equally clear: this is a levered project developer with negative free cash flow and $39.7B of net debt, whose margins fall if LNG supply loosens, and whose shares remain below their IPO price despite a +46% year. It's the kind of asymmetric setup worth owning on the contracted-volume growth and cheap multiple — provided you can live with the balance sheet and the commodity spread.
Disclaimer: AI-generated quick take for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data from public filings and financial data providers.