The #1 turnover name on the US VolumeSurge screen — a record-ARR quarter, a fresh 52-week high, and a valuation that already prices the next three years — Quick Take
Technology was the dominant sector in today's US VolumeSurge — 20 of 49 passing names — and CrowdStrike was the single largest name on the screen by turnover: +5.3% to $262.49 on 13.2M shares / $3.5B turnover, ahead of Seagate ($3.0B) and Twilio ($1.2B). The HK VolumeSurge passed 0 of 2,817 equities, so no HK signal applied. The move is not noise: CRWD broke out to a fresh 52-week high on Wednesday 23 Sep in a multi-session rally (up ~131% year-to-date), with sell-side targets being hiked into it — Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss reaffirmed Buy and lifted his target to $254 from $238 — on a sector-wide tailwind from agentic-AI safety concerns that are pulling identity-perimeter and AI-security budget forward. The fundamental anchor underneath is the 26 Aug Q2 FY2027 print: record net new ARR of $333M (+51% YoY), Falcon Flex ending ARR through $2.29B (+101%), and a full-year net new ARR growth outlook raised 630bps to a 34% midpoint. CrowdStrike has not been covered before in this series.
| Year (FYE Jan) | Revenue | Rev Growth | Op Margin | Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $1,452M | +66.0% | -9.8% | -$234.8M |
| FY2023 | $2,241M | +54.4% | -8.5% | -$183.3M |
| FY2024 | $3,056M | +36.3% | -0.6% | +$72.2M |
| FY2025 | $3,954M | +29.4% | -2.9% | -$15.2M |
| FY2026 | $4,812M | +21.7% | -5.2% | -$162.5M |
| TTM (to Jul-26) | $5,396M | +24.3% | -2.5% | +$45.0M |
The GAAP line is the awkward one: revenue compounds in the mid-20s and gross margin sits at ~75%, but operating income is still negative (-$133M TTM) and the entire profit is eaten by stock-based compensation. Q2 FY2027 (quarter ended 31 Jul, reported 26 Aug) was the inflection point in the operating metrics: total revenue $1.47B (+26% YoY), record quarterly operating cash flow of $530M and record free cash flow of $377M, versus a $77.7M net loss in the year-ago quarter. Q1 FY2027 (Apr-26) had revenue of $1.39B (+26%) with ending ARR of $5.51B (+24%) and a first swing to GAAP profit at $27.8M / $0.11 per share. Guidance: FY2027 revenue of $5.99–6.01B (≈+25% YoY, above the ~$5.94B consensus) with net new ARR of $1.350–1.359B. Balance sheet is clean — $5.01B cash against $820M debt, net cash $4.19B — and TTM free cash flow is $1.61B (29.8% FCF margin).
The business is doing exactly what a platform compounder should: record net new ARR, Falcon Flex compounding at triple digits, cash flow gushing, and a demand narrative — agentic-AI safety — that large enterprises cannot defer. What you are paying for it is the problem: roughly 50x sales, ~186x forward earnings, and a consensus target below the last print means CrowdStrike needs the next three years of ARR compounding to arrive intact just to hold the multiple, and a hawkish long-end rates tape is the wrong backdrop for that. The 23 Sep breakout to a fresh 52-week high on management's own insider selling is a poor entry signal; this is a name to own on a multiple reset, not on the momentum print.
Disclaimer: AI-generated quick take for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data from public filings and financial data providers.